Ohio: The Third Richest Swing State

Ohio is the third richest swing state with its 18 electoral votes. It holds a lot of power in the current presidential election. Question is who will gain the upper hand: Obama or Romney?  Although most polls put Barack Obama ahead, Mr. Romney has closed the gap to just a point or two. In 2008 Mr. Obama won Ohio by 52% to 47%. I believe john McCain was a much weaker opponent that Mitt Romney. So whatever the turnout is, I believe it is going to be a really close race. Jobs in general ought not to be a challenging problem for President Obama in Ohio. The unemployment rate, at 7.0%, is nearly a point below the national average. Even though it is mainly because of amazing good fortune in the shape of the Utica shale, a trove of natural gas in the east of the state, it will help President Obama in the presidential race. 

A bigger worry for Mr. Obama ought to be coal, again concentrated in the poorer Appalachian east of the state. Republicans are focusing on President Obama’s stance on coal or what they call it, “war on coal.” It is a set of carbon-reduction regulations enforced by the Environmental Protection Agency that has forced some coal-fired generating plants to close and imposed higher costs on others. Ohio gets more than 80% of its energy from the stuff, and cares little these days about global warming. The row over coal is especially damaging for the president because it hurts him in areas of Ohio that have traditionally voted Democratic.

On the other hand, President Obama is on firmer ground when it comes to cars. An estimated 850,000 Ohio jobs depend on the industry, which President Obama saved when he rescued GM and Chrysler out of bankruptcy. In the end Ohio will be settled not by ideology, but by the grim mechanics of voter turnout. Here the incumbent has some obvious advantages. Obama for America, his nationwide campaign team, has made Ohio top priority from the beginning. The fight might be very close, but it will certainly be interesting to observe as the race gets closer to the end.